Intel Report

Iran war crosses nine weeks. Hormuz effectively closed. Trump rushed off stage at the Hilton Saturday night. Oil mid-$90s, gold near $4,700, FOMC meets Wednesday for what may be Powell’s last meeting.

Diplomatic windows opening on multiple fronts. US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. Ukraine ceasefire holding through the freeze. Markets in uncertainty mode — oil elevated, gold near records, dollar weak. Watch Virginia closely.

Comprehensive situation analysis on Iran. Casualty estimates from the 2026 protests range 6,000–20,000+. CENTCOM logistical buildup the largest since 2003. Prediction markets price ~71% kinetic strike before June 2026.

Oil + gold + weak dollar = triple-confirmation of uncertainty premium. Iran escalation risk being priced in. NERC warns U.S. power outage risk “worsening.” Two major SCOTUS 2A cases incoming.

Oil moving on Iran risk, not demand. Fed independence shock risk now a live variable. China–Taiwan pressure normalization continues. Markets pricing higher uncertainty.